It’s hard to look that in the eye. But the worst of COVID is yet to come
… It is difficult for the human mind to grasp; part of it is the pure bloody wall of exponential mathematics. The numbers seem imaginary. Sander explains: In places like South Africa, Denmark, Germany and the UK, in different populations, Omicron doubled every three to four days, or faster. That’s about a 400 percent increase in one week. Ontario chief medical officer Dr Kieran Moore said Omicron currently accounts for about 10 percent of recent cases. That would mean about 145 Omicron cases in Ontario on Friday.
With a 400% increase each week, Sander points out that the numbers do something like this: 145 today, 600 in one week, 2,400 in two weeks, 9,600 in three weeks. It would be New Years Eve, and unhindered, that would mean nearly 40,000 cases per day per week after that. We were already on schedule to cancel surgeries with a Delta wave only. Based on predicted growth charts, Omicron could become the predominant variant in Ontario within 10 days, and it will be an Omicron pandemic by early 2022.
“We won’t even have the capacity to test,” says Dr. Andrew Morris, professor of infectious diseases at the University of Toronto and member of the science table. “And the public is not ready to close the doors tomorrow. Whatever the right thing to do, you can’t do it. But I’m pretty sure everyone in the next six to 12 weeks will be infected with Omicron, unless they live the life of a hermit. It’s just the reality.
This is a Star piece. Lets hope the science is wrong again.
