A recurring illusion in American foreign policy is that removing the most visible layer of oppression in a brutal regime, as in Haiti, Afghanistan, Libya and Iraq, is enough to claim victory. It is politically convenient and media-friendly, but in the instance of the Islamic Republic of Iran, looks to be strategically disastrous.
Today, as pressure mounts on Iran and US President Donald J. Trump signals a willingness to seize a perceived opening — most recently through a 15-day ceasefire — the same illusion is once again taking shape. The issue is no longer whether the regime in Tehran is under strain — it clearly is — but whether Washington is preparing, consciously or not, to replace a brutal clerical dictatorship with a brutal military one.
