Snap election still possible, despite potential Liberal byelections wins and more rumoured floor-crossings, say some pollsters

Even if Prime Minister Mark Carney secures a slim majority through more floor-crossings and upcoming byelection wins, the governing Liberals could still call an early election this year in an effort to obtain a stronger mandate to deal with challenges such as the ongoing trade war with the United States, say pollsters.

“The longer they wait for an election, the less control that they might have over what the election’s about,” said Nik Nanos, chief data scientist for Nanos Research, in an interview with The Hill Times. “The reality is, if there’s an election this year, it’ll be about free trade because we have the July 1 date where the negotiations [for the renewal of the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement] are supposed to start.”

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A chance for Poilievre to flip the Trump script

When one of Pierre Poilievre’s Conservative MPs, Jamil Jivani, travelled to Washington to meet with Trump administration officials, he chose to chastise Canadians for having an anti-American “hissy fit” in an interview with MAGA site Breitbart News.

It’s hard to imagine a more harmful piece of public relations for the Conservatives.

And it is a golden opportunity for Mr. Poilievre.


The “Hissy Fit” comment only upsets the Elbow people who somehow can’t see that in the LPC they support the very people who have made Canada “Poorer than Alabama”.

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Bell: Danielle Smith a Nazi — Rachel Notley and Lukaszuk should be denounced

A year ago, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith was called a traitor.

Now Smith is compared to Hitler’s Nazis.

And she is not compared to the Nazis by the usual unhinged social media bottom feeder.

No.

Smith is slimed by the former premier of Alberta. That’s Rachel Notley.

Smith is also slimed by the former deputy premier of Alberta. That’s Thomas Lukaszuk.

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Sharan Kaur: Why moderates are fleeing the CPC, and what it says about Poilievre

The walls of Parliament shook this week with yet another floor-crossing of Edmonton MP Matt Jeneroux to join Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberal caucus. This wasn’t just a procedural shift in the halls of Parliament, it is a stark symbol of a new, unsettling reality in Conservative politics.

While floor-crossing is a historical reality and, let’s be honest, Liberals have crossed to the Conservatives before, the difference here is the context. The toxic reaction surrounding this crossing exposes a genuine bottom of the barrel moment for the political discourse, particularly within the Conservative movement.


I do not think it honest to declare yourself a moderate and a conservative after a decade of the LPC’s corrosive rule.

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Why neither Carney nor Poilievre is rushing towards a snap election

For all the talk of a spring federal election, the case for one is arguably weaker than it appears.

Yes, Canada feels like it’s already in campaign mode.

The ruling Liberals are riding high in the polls. Donald Trump is once again sowing anxiety among Canadians. Floor crossings, including Matt Jeneroux’s move this week, have only added to the fever.

In politics, momentum carries gravitational pull. But gravity is not destiny. And in this case, the risks of misfiring prematurely may be too high for Prime Minister Mark Carney.

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Stephen Maher: Rumours are swirling over Ottawa floor-crossers. They might be a sign of things to come

When Mark Carney announced Wednesday that Edmonton Conservative MP Matt Jeneroux would cross the floor to join his government, I thought of two recent rumours from the backrooms of Ottawa.

The first rumour spread in November, when Nova Scotia MP Chris d’Entremont let slip that he was thinking about crossing the floor to the Liberals. When Conservative Deputy Leader Andrew Scheer and Deputy Whip Chris Warkentin heard the news, they barged into his office to berate him, only to discover Jeneroux sitting there having a chat with the turncoat red Tory.

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Poilievre may have wanted to avoid an election. But maybe not like this

Two weeks ago, Mark Carney and Pierre Poilievre met in the prime minister’s Parliament Hill office in an apparent attempt to find common ground on the government’s legislative agenda.

“My message to him is to work with us,” Poilievre told reporters afterwards.

Perhaps Carney took that message more literally than Poilievre intended.

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Michael Taube: Doug Ford’s daughter lets slip he may run for Conservative leader ‘at some point’

Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre overwhelmingly won his leadership review in January with 87.4 per cent support of the vote. He will be the party leader for the foreseeable future and into the next federal election.

While most Conservatives are hopeful that Poilievre will become prime minister, there are contenders waiting in the wings if he’s unsuccessful. Ontario Premier Doug Ford may be one of them.

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Conservative MP Jeneroux floor crossing a ‘betrayal,’ Pierre Poilievre says

Conservative MP Matt Jeneroux is joining the Liberal caucus, according to a social media post by Prime Minister Mark Carney.

“Building a stronger, more resilient, and more independent country will require ambition, collaboration, and occasionally, sacrifice,” Carney wrote. “I am grateful to Matt and his family that he will continue his service as a strong voice for Edmonton Riverbend in Parliament.”

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Poilievre says Conservatives want national unity in face of separation threats

OTTAWA – Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre says his party will fight for a united Canada as a movement in Alberta pushes for that province to separate.

Answering a question from a reporter today, Poilievre said the Conservatives are “entirely a federalist caucus” and that he has not had a single member of Parliament on his team express they are in favour of Alberta separatism.

The group Stay Free Alberta is seeking a referendum vote for the province to become its own country, and has until May to get nearly 178,000 signatures.

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To have any chance of becoming prime minister, Poilievre needs to say Trump’s name

Silence is a decision.

And this is, effectively, where Pierre Poilievre now finds himself on the issue of U.S. President Donald Trump.

Among some Conservative party faithful, there has been a quiet hope, wishful thinking actually, that this issue would cease to be the dominant one. That crime and affordability would re-emerge as ballot-box drivers. That the Trump circus would recede to the periphery.

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Dennis Molinaro: Diversifying trade with China is a losing play

I wrote the following in my book Under Assault: Interference and Espionage in China’s Secret War Against Canada:

“An economic slump in the U.S. was going to affect Canada’s financial health, and so trade diversification again became a driving consideration. But instead of diversifying trade with like-minded democracies, Canada went begging at the doorstep of the Communist state that had been engaged in foreign interference and espionage against Canada and the U.S. for the past 30 years.”

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