
When Mark Carney took to the stage at Davos this year, he cast himself as the spokesman for a new alliance of middle powers, banding together against an erratic and aggressive America. Within days, the Canadian prime minister was being hailed as a liberal counterweight to President Trump.
Had events unfolded slightly differently nine months earlier, it would have been Pierre Poilievre, not Carney, representing Ottawa on the world stage. Betting markets last year gave the 46-year-old Conservative from Calgary a 90 per cent chance of becoming prime minister. Instead, a rapid chain of political shocks reshaped the country’s trajectory. It was a case study in how quickly political fortunes can turn. Rather than win the country, Poilievre lost his seat.













