Conservative Party

At a lunchtime campaign stop in the town of Fergus, Ont., in April, the lineup to see Pierre Poilievre wound around the hallways of a recreation centre.

Two nights earlier, his downtown Toronto rally finished with hundreds standing in a serpentine line for 90 minutes, waiting to take a picture with him. Many hadn’t been to a political event before.

It’s a scene replicated in towns and cities across the country, with a cross-section of traditional conservatives, trucker-convoy fans and 30-somethings worried about home prices coming out in droves to see Mr. Poilievre.

Pierre Poilievre’s critics would claim to be surprised if they heard him say “thank you” to the clerk at a coffee shop: “He must be shifting to the centre. You know he needs to do that to win an election.” It isn’t much of an exaggeration to suggest that this is how Poilievre’s demeanour has been received since winning the Conservative leadership on Saturday.

Jean Charest’s main pitch to become leader of the Conservative Party of Canada – his only pitch, really – was that only he would be able to beat Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in a federal election: that his version of moderate conservatism wouldn’t alienate centrist voters the way Pierre Poilievre’s convoy cheerleading and weird flirtations with right-wing conspiracies would, and that his record in Quebec would help the party win crucial support in the province. The hitch in Mr. Charest’s plan, of course, was that in order to win the country, he first needed to win the party, and the party obviously wasn’t interested in Mr. Charest’s bland rice pudding of an attempted political movement.

In his march to the leadership of the federal Conservative Party, Pierre Poilievre made clear in campaign stops across the country who the enemies were.

The top of the list, of course, was reserved for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who was responsible for the “Justinflation” ruining the lives of everyday Canadians. But also making the grade was another favourite target of the Conservatives over the years: media outlets that are not explicitly sympathetic to the conservative cause.

Pierre Poilievre’s populism – taking his party “from suits to boots,” as he smartly puts it – has struck a chord. He’s riding a wave. He crushed the field in the Conservative leadership campaign. The inflation surge has the population angry, seemingly ready for change. And he’s the self-proclaimed tribune of the underclass ready to bring it.

But there’s a problem. The new leader’s timing is way off. With an election two or, more likely, three years away, his momentum now means next to nothing.

Commentators who insist Canadians will never vote for a true conservative – and I would estimate that that is the majority of people in my profession, plus most academics who speak to the media – forget Stephen Harper won three elections, including one majority. (In case you’re keeping score, that’s the same record as Justin Trudeau.)

The words we choose matter. Words are how we communicate ideas, demonstrate priorities and show allegiance.

And words are also how we break through in the increasingly competitive marketplace of public attention, and win over hearts and minds. Words mean even more when the message we’re trying to deliver is complicated, complex, or just plain boring.

When considering Pierre Poilievre, you need to distinguish between the incoherence of some of his policy and this fact: In politics, either you’ve got it or you don’t. He’s got it.

As a populist politician, the new Conservative Leader often appeals to emotion over reason. Firing the governor of the Bank of Canada, as he proposes, will have no impact on inflation. Compelling universities to protect free-speech rights would simply mandate what already exists.

In Pierre Poilievre, the federal Conservative Party of Canada has found its most effective, electable leader since Stephen Harper.

And perhaps someone who can vanquish Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in the next general election and cast the federal Liberal Party to the political sidelines.

While one may not like the way Mr. Poilievre achieved his victory – among other things, by flirting with freedom protesting extremists and promulgating crazy conspiracy theories – it must be acknowledged that his straight-ahead march to his party’s leadership was singularly impressive.

He’s got the Smurf vote.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will be facing off against Pierre Poilievre in the next election, whether it’s three years away or a matter of months. In an uncertain universe it appears at this point to be the Conservatives’ game to lose.