Conservative Party

OTTAWA — Canada’s leading election forecaster says that Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre is a near lock to win the upcoming Battle River—Crowfoot byelection, but adds that the more interesting question could be by how much.

The upcoming federal byelection in Battle River-Crowfoot has Jennifer Fossen in unknown territory.

Fossen is the president of the Camrose & District Chamber of Commerce. In the April federal election, it held a candidate forum. Only one nominee showed up to speak to a half empty room.

Three months later, Fossen is hosting another candidate forum, this time in a byelection race featuring Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, and the response is, well, off the hook.

CAMROSE, ALTA. — The balloons have long since deflated and drifted back to earth, the lawn signs and ballot boxes packed away. In most of the country, anyway.

But for Pierre Poilievre, the election campaign never really ended. After the Conservative leader lost the Ottawa-area riding of Carleton, which he’d held for 21 years, to a Liberal newcomer, he was cast out into the proverbial wilderness. Specifically, to a sprawling rural Alberta riding where the freshly re-elected Tory MP stepped down, allowing Poilievre a chance to win the seat in a byelection and rejoin the party he leads in the House of Commons.

Warning Star article … I only found out I was blocked by accident.

Pierre Poilievre was feeling dejected and disappointed after the stinging federal election loss in April, sources close to the Conservative leader said, and he dialed back his public appearances for the better part of two months to reassess his strategy and regroup.

After that period of self-reflection, which was marked by private calls and visits with dozens of MPs, staff and supporters, Poilievre is re-emerging from a relatively dormant period — ramping up his federal byelection campaign, weighing in publicly on perceived Liberal missteps and speaking to the press.

The NDP, it is well known, is in deep trouble. With seven seats and 6.3 per cent of the popular vote in the recent election, the party posted its worst showing, not only since its founding, but since the founding of its predecessor, the Co-operative Commonwealth Federation, in 1935.

Leaderless, deprived of official party status in the House of Commons and the perqs that go with it (money, staff, committee seats, recognition, credibility), the party has launched a months-long “review and renewal process.” Only after that is completed will the leadership race get under way. It could be next spring before the party has a leader.

Conservative Party Leader Pierre Poilievre says he lost his riding of Carleton in the federal election due to an “aggressive” campaign by public sector unions after he was honest about wanting to cut federal worker jobs.

Poilievre had held the Ottawa riding of Carleton for two decades until the April 28 election, when he was defeated by Liberal candidate Bruce Fanjoy by 4,500 votes.

The loss was a major setback for the leader, who before the new year had been favoured to become prime minister.

Carney talks Big but the LPC has relied upon the Public Service Union vote bloc for years.

Junior increased their numbers by almost 40% Carney won’t harm that relationship.

He smiles.

“How do I feel? Are you my shrink or what?”

Pierre Poilievre, the Conservative leader, was asked how he feels.

After all, conservatives had so much hope. Finally, they could see the defeat of the Liberals.

We all know the rest of the story.

Pierre Poilievre rode into the Calgary Stampede to cheers as he took in the parade on horseback. When he took to the stage Friday night, a young enthusiastic crowd cheered him on with a raucous reception.

The public reception for Poilievre was very different from what Conservative supporters were willing to say privately at various Stampede events.

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre’s path back to the House of Commons runs through a rural Alberta riding that has become a hotbed for Western discontent and the independence movement — a potentially tricky situation to navigate for a leader with national ambitions.

Poilievre, a Calgarian by birth who has lived away from Alberta for more than two decades, is running in the Aug. 18 byelection in Battle River-Crowfoot, a sprawling riding in the province’s east where the oil and gas industry is a major employer. It includes the small town of Hardisty, which sits at the nexus of the North American oil pipeline system and is home to a huge petroleum tank farm.

OTTAWA — Prime Minister Mark Carney has scheduled a byelection for Aug. 18 in the Alberta riding of Battle River—Crowfoot where Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre will be looking to regain a seat.

“The prime minister will be honouring his commitment of calling it quickly with ‘no games’ so that the byelection is complete well ahead of the House of Commons coming back in mid-September, rather than drawing it out in any way until December or January,” said a source familiar with the prime minster’s thinking, speaking on background because they were not authorized to speak publicly on the matter.

If you are wondering what Pierre Poilievre has been up to while Prime Minister Mark Carney hosted the G7 Summit in Alberta, announced a new Canada-European Union security-and-defence partnership in Brussels, and signed on to a NATO pledge to massively boost military spending at The Hague, hogging the spotlight has definitely not been it.

The Conservative Leader has been all but invisible as Mr. Carney moves with lightning speed to steer “the biggest transformation of our economy since the Second World War,” as he likes to call it. That is likely by choice. There is not much Mr. Poilievre could say or do right now to distract attention from the new Prime Minister as he unleashes sweeping reforms to kickstart major infrastructure projects, negotiate a new economic and security pact with U.S. President Donald Trump and overhaul the public service.

I imagine the media is enjoying Poilievre’s deep freeze, he hasn’t exactly endeared himself to the press.

What a difference six months make. In December, Canada’s Conservatives were in the catbird seat with 48 per cent support, while the Liberals dropped to 19. Practically everyone pegged Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre as Canada’s next prime minister.

Then Justin Trudeau stepped down, Donald Trump took office and Mark Carney got elected Liberal leader. One federal election later, the Liberals have a minority and would likely have a majority if a vote were held today. It’s a reversal of fortunes worthy of a Shakespearean play (or, for the gen Z crowd, a Netflix drama).