“Ukraine – Russia”

If the West can use sanctions and embargoes as weapons of war against Vladimir Putin’s Russia, so can Russia – in retaliation. And that is precisely what is happening.

In recent weeks, Russia, the main supplier of Europe’s imported natural gas, has been making it more difficult – even impossible – for European clients to buy its gas. First it demanded payment in rubles, not dollars or euros; Moscow ended deliveries to Bulgaria, Finland and Poland, allegedly for their refusal to pay in rubles.

Ukraine’s top general has told his U.S. counterpart that his country desperately needs “fire parity” with Russia to “stabilize” the difficult situation in the east, where Kyiv’s forces have suffered setbacks against Moscow’s troops backed by powerful artillery bombardments.

“We discussed the operational situation and the delivery flow of international technical assistance,” General Valeriy Zaluzhniy wrote in an online posting after holding a phone call on June 24 with General Mark Milley, the U.S. chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

Kyiv has received billions of dollars in aid from its Western partners since Moscow’s unprovoked invasion began on February 24.

#Ukraine: The Ukrainian forces have now released official footage of the HIMARS launchers supplied by the US in action. Several launches of guided GMLRS rockets can be seen. https://t.co/AdEjN87uGe pic.twitter.com/0TmgD7EdIp

— 🇺🇦 Ukraine Weapons Tracker (@UAWeapons) June 25, 2022

Whatever the origins of the Ukraine war, the West and Russia are now engaged in a broader confrontation that is not confined to the military struggle: the war has become a competition in pain-tolerance.

This is, as Thomas Schelling wrote, “a conscious process of dirty bargaining”, whereby each side tries to inflict pain and suffering on the other side until one or both yield. Put simply, the West and Russia are playing a violent version of the schoolyard game Mercy. The centrepiece of the West’s effort to inflict pain on Russia is what the historian Nicholas Mulder has called “the economic weapon”, which has been deployed at unprecedented scale. The centrepiece of Russia’s effort to inflict pain on the West is the commodities weapon. In this competition in pain-tolerance, it is not immediate whether the West or Russia has the upper hand.

Speaking at a private dinner in London recently, a senior serving British military officer argued that the west had no choice but to see Ukraine as just one phase in a decade-long battle with Russia. “If Ukraine wins, Russia will never accept that. If Russia wins, it will go further,” he said.

Yet in Whitehall they fear the “F word” – fatigue – and worry that the west with its TikTok-attention span and bias towards instant gratification does not have the resolve for the years-long sacrifice required to defeat Russia, or even stem the military tide in the villages of eastern Ukraine.

That anxiety is shared by Volodymyr Zelenskiy, the Ukrainian president, who in a speech to marketing professionals in Cannes this week pleaded with them to use their creative ingenuity to keep the world focused on his country’s struggle: “Don’t let the world switch to something else,” he said.

#Ukraine: Ukrainian Airborne forces hit a Russian supply convoy (Claimed to be carrying ammunition and fuel) with indirect fire, destroying several vehicles. pic.twitter.com/OY5XQ5cTg9

— 🇺🇦 Ukraine Weapons Tracker (@UAWeapons) June 24, 2022

The global oil market isn’t exactly cooperating

When the European Union finally made the decision to ban 90 percent of Russia’s crude oil imports by the end of the year, the bureaucrats in Brussels were jubilant. The EU’s adoption of oil sanctions was thought be a big blow to Russian President Vladimir Putin, who depends on the revenue generated by his country’s oil exports to fund his war in Ukraine.

OTTAWA — When James Challice rides into battle in the contested south of Ukraine, he doesn’t travel to the front in an armoured infantry fighting vehicle: He drives himself in a Hyundai Sonata.

“We get hit with machine gun fire and mortars, we have to hide them (the cars) in the woods. It’s been surreal, but we’re using what we’ve got,” the Canadian Forces veteran said in an interview with National Post.

#Ukraine: The cause of some of the recent strikes against Russian targets deep in occupied territory: No less than 3 Ukrainian 9M79-1 Tochka-U ballistic missiles seen launching.

Note Stinger MANPADS to take out possible Russian UAVs that could guide fire onto the launch site. pic.twitter.com/ZkhnYCfKeC

— 🇺🇦 Ukraine Weapons Tracker (@UAWeapons) June 23, 2022

#Ukraine: A Ukrainian kamikaze drone hit the #Novoshakhtinsk oil refinery in the #Rostov Oblast, #Russia,causing a large fire. Allegedly, the Ukrainians used a modified Chinese-made Skyeye 4450 custom UAV during the attack.#UkraineWar #UkraineRussiaWar #UkraineUnderAttack #Kyiv pic.twitter.com/Fkfr4RqNdQ

— 🇺🇦Ukraine_Weapons Observer (@UW_Observer) June 22, 2022

As Germany scrambles to find a way to lower its reliance on Russian natural gas, the country has announced a move to the second phase — “alarm” level — of its three-stage emergency gas plan, possibly leading to higher prices for consumers. The third phase could involve gas rationing.

And the energy crisis could have even more severe consequences for industry and consumers come the fall months.

Possible solutions include purchasing from other sources, including liquefied gas; more frugal consumption and utilizing coal to a greater degree. At the same time, the neoliberal Free Democrats — the smallest party in Germany’s ruling coalition government — are calling for German nuclear power plants to run longer and for the ban on natural gas extraction through the process known as fracking to be lifted.

Before Russian bombs started falling on his motherland, Alex Shevchenko’s plan for this year was to buy a family house, move to Kent and run his internet trading business from the English countryside.

Now Shevchenko, 41, is at the beating heart of a thousand-strong volunteer network manufacturing reconnaissance drones, developing artillery-targeting applications and supplying the Ukrainian army from Britain.

Crowdsourced armaments. What a world.

At a time when there is mounting concern that European leaders are suffering from “war fatigue” over the Ukraine conflict, the prospect of Kyiv becoming an official candidate for European Union membership constitutes a much-needed morale boost for the Ukrainian people.

With the conflict now reaching the four-month mark, the early enthusiasm demonstrated by Western leaders for supporting the Ukrainian cause has been replaced by apathy as it becomes clear that the war is likely to drag on for months to come.

IEA chief warns that Russia may be trying to prevent countries filling storage facilities ahead of winter

Europe needs to prepare immediately for Russia to turn off all gas exports to the region this winter, according to the head of the International Energy Agency, who has called on governments to work on reducing demand and keeping nuclear power plants open.

Fatih Birol said reductions in supplies in recent weeks which the Kremlin has attributed to maintenance work could, in fact, be the beginning of wider cuts designed to prevent the filling of storage facilities in preparation for winter, as Russia seeks to gain leverage over the region.

“Europe should be ready in case Russian gas is completely cut off,” he said in an interview with the Financial Times. “The nearer we are coming to winter, the more we understand Russia’s intentions.

RUSSIAN and Ukrainian aircraft have adopted an unusual tactic for firing unguided rockets. Rather than launch them in pairs directly at a target on a downward angle, pilots tend to fly low before climbing and firing an entire pod of rockets steeply upwards, after which the pilot veers away. This clumsy approach, known as “lofting” or “tossing”, has some advantages, but points to a lack of modern weaponry on both sides.

The technique was originally developed by the American armed forces in the 1940s. To deliver an atomic bomb without having to fly directly over its target, aircraft would make a steep climb before releasing a bomb on an upwards trajectory. The plane would then break off sharply while the bomb continued, achieving the maximum range without catching the aircraft in the blast.

I think we’ve priced ourselves back to the future.

It could expand the war yet Congress has had no say

Over the last four months, the Biden administration has assured us that it is only sending “defensive weapons” to Ukraine. It’s a claim that’s become more difficult to believe as more sophisticated systems are announced seemingly every week that do not require further congressional approval.

Take the most recent example. The White House announced a fresh $1 billion last week for 18 more Howitzers, more long-range missiles for the HIMARS rocket systems announced earlier this month, and a new weapon, Harpoon anti-ship missiles. These are systems that can strike at the more than 20 Russian naval vessels accused of blockading Ukraine’s eastern ports.

It would be a mistake for U.S. policymakers to assume that European allies will continue to view it as in their best interests to follow Washington’s lead.

U.S. policymakers often point to the Western sanctions levied on Russia as evidence of a unified international response to the war in Ukraine. For example, when asked by a reporter last week about whether French president Emmanuel Macron’s peace overtures raised concerns that transatlantic unity could hold up “under pressure,” U.S. ambassador to the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe Michael Carpenter responded by pointing to the European Union’s (EU) six sanctions packages as evidence that there is “tremendous unity” with only “occasional differences on tactics.”

KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — As was his habit before each flight, the veteran Ukrainian army pilot ran a hand along the fuselage of his Mi-8 helicopter, caressing the heavy transporter’s metal skin to bring luck to him and his crew.

They would need it. Their destination — a besieged steel mill in the brutalized city of Mariupol — was a death trap. Some other crews didn’t make it back alive.

Still, the mission was vital, even desperate. Ukrainian troops were pinned down, their supplies running low, their dead and injured stacking up. Their last-ditch stand at the Azovstal mill was a growing symbol of Ukraine’s defiance in the war against Russia. They could not be allowed to perish.

Ukraine detains senior public figures suspected of spying for Russia

KYIV, June 21 (Reuters) – Ukraine has detained a senior government official and a business leader suspected of being part of an alleged Russian spy network, the Security Service of Ukraine said on Tuesday.

The Security Service (SBU) did not name the two suspects but identified them as a senior official in the Secretariat of the Cabinet of Ministers and a department head at the Chamber of Commerce and Industry, a business lobby.

Ukrainian journalist Yuriy Butusov published a documentary about the most riskiest and complicated mission of the whole war in Ukraine – delivery of supplies, weapons and troops into besieged Mariupol via helicopters. pic.twitter.com/UGNneXxGI2

— 🇺🇦 Ukraine Weapons Tracker (@UAWeapons) June 20, 2022

Here is the link to the full documentary which we really recommend watching to better understand one of the most intrepid operations of this war so far.https://t.co/sErCKbz1sV

— 🇺🇦 Ukraine Weapons Tracker (@UAWeapons) June 20, 2022