Chaos creates countless opportunities for mistakes.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine is not a nuclear crisis. Yet. Concern about the role of nuclear weapons is perfectly understandable, however, now that a paranoid dictator has led Russia into a major war in the middle of Europe, attacking a country that shares a border with four of America’s NATO allies. A nuclear crisis is unlikely, but not impossible.
Looks like we’ve achieved nearly a full consensus on Mitt Romney’s vindication — even before Russia invaded Ukraine. A Gallup poll conduced between February 1-17 shows anger rising rapidly toward Russia, across all political denominations. It had already gotten bad shortly after Barack Obama’s 2012 bon mot to Romney that “the 80s called and they want their foreign policy back,” but Vladimir Putin’s aggression has turned it into a consensus even before the first shot was fired.
The reverberations of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine will be felt for months, and likely years, to come. To understand our responsibility to the people of Ukraine and the actions needed on a global scale, we need a holistic understanding of how we have come to this point and why Putin felt confident and empowered enough to take the gamble he did. One theme stands out as particularly relevant to Canada: oil and gas.
Oil shocks crash economies and enable enemies
Oil prices are surging. Brent crude has broken through the $100 per barrel mark — the highest level since 2014. And this could just be the start of a new oil price shock.
Russia is the world’s second biggest exporter — supplying nearly five million of the 100 million barrels of crude oil the world consumes every day. More than half of those exports flow westwards into Europe, through pipelines that cross Ukraine and Belarus. It’s difficult know which is the grimmest scenario: that the oil stops flowing due to sanctions or sabotage; or that the trade continues — filling the Kremlin’s coffers while Russian bombs rain down on Kyiv.
Italy allegedly managed to secure a carve-out of one of its biggest industries in the sanctions the European Union levied on Russia, The Telegraph reported Friday.
“Italian prime minister Mario Draghi successfully secured a carve-out for Italian luxury goods from the EU’s package of economic sanctions against Nato,” Telegraph reporter Joe Barnes tweeted. He alleged that “multiple sources” reportedly confirmed luxury goods were excluded from the package after lobbying from Draghi.
Occupying a nation can very often backfire, as the United States learned in Afghanistan
At least for the moment, it looks like Russian president Vladimir Putin is intent on conquering Ukraine, a nation he’s never believed has the right to exist.
While the fog of war always limits accurate real-time military analysis, it seems for now that Russia has committed to annexing at least large sections of Ukraine and is winning the day militarily with ease.
Russia could use savage superweapons that vaporize bodies and crush internal organs if their assault of Ukraine becomes bogged down, Western officials warned tonight.
They fear Vladimir Putin could resort to high-power thermobaric weapons – dubbed the ‘father of all bombs’ – as brave Ukrainians resist his attempts to take control of Kyiv.
There are also concerns that units that are running behind schedule as they encounter stiff opposition could resort to indiscriminate shelling as a terror weapon.
The adjectives flew fast and furious on Thursday as Western allies — Canada included — described the latest round of sanctions aimed at Russia for its invasion of Ukraine.
Severe. Harsh. Punishing. Massive.
Each package was delivered with precision and conviction by every nation — despite the growing skepticism among foreign policy experts about their potential in the short term to halt the bloody offensive that began overnight.
Keep buying Russian Oil Junior that’ll show em.
Sanctions Are Not Enough
Ever since last year, when Vladimir Putin began preparing for an invasion of Ukraine, President Biden has tried to deter him. Biden tried to reason with the Russian autocrat. He released declassified intelligence to rally the world against the imminent threat. He supported French president Emmanuel Macron’s last-ditch attempt at diplomacy. He warned Russia that a war would be met with harsh economic sanctions.
Nothing worked. Negotiations failed. So-called “deterrence through disclosure” had no effect. The threat of punishment carried no weight. The invasion began in the early hours of February 24. The largest military action undertaken on the continent of Europe since World War II is underway. Anyone who pretends to know what will happen next is kidding themselves.
I know CNN & MSNBC never aired this, so I figured I would. Spot on, don’t you think? pic.twitter.com/6V1vRKxP8p
— Justin Pulitzer Trades 🍊 (@JustinPulitzer) February 24, 2022
h/t INGENUI
The UK repeated calls on Friday for Russia to be banned from the Swift payment network, which is pivotal for the smooth transaction of money worldwide.
Defence Secretary Ben Wallace told the BBC: “Britain wants the Swift system to be turned off for Russia. But unfortunately the Swift system is not in our control. It is not a unilateral decision.”
Banning Russia from the system – which is used by thousands of banks – would hit the country’s banking network and access to funds.
But many governments fear it would hurt their own economies and companies because buying oil and gas from Russia, for example, would be disrupted.
Canada imports Russian Oil. Half a billion dollars worth in 2019. Quebec and the Maritimes, Liberal Party strongholds, likely benefit.
The sound of gunfire has echoed through Ukraine’s capital, Kyiv, as Russian tanks were filmed entering the city for the first time.
Ukraine’s Ministry of Defence called on those living in Kyiv’s northern outskirts – where the tanks were filmed – to make fire bombs “to neutralise the enemy”.
Overnight, the city was hit by blasts, with at least one block of flats damaged and several civilians injured.
Russia has denied carrying out strikes.
The unnamed source at Russia’s defence ministry also said a plane shot down over Kyiv was Ukrainian, Reuters news agency reports. Ukraine has said the jet was Russian.
In Kiev weapons for free.. pic.twitter.com/0P2ry0cJCX
— ZOKA (@200_zoka) February 25, 2022
Fighting reaches Kyiv suburbs as Russian invasion of Ukraine intensifies
Fighting has reached the northern suburbs of Kyiv after a night of missile attacks on the Ukrainian capital to prepare for a major Russian assault, as president Volodymyr Zelenskiy pleaded for more international help and tougher sanctions.
Air raid sirens wailed over the city of 3 million people and heavy gunfire and explosions were heard in a residential district on Friday morning. Ukrainian officials warned that Russian military vehicles were approaching the city from the north-west.
Western incoherence and Russian opportunism have led Ukraine into disaster.
As Russian troops pile into Ukraine, and Russian bombs fall on Ukrainian cities, what are the security services in the UK focusing on? White privilege. This is not a joke. As the Daily Mail reports today, ‘Britain’s spies are being urged to consider their “white privilege” and declare their pronouns as Europe descends into war’. This comes from a leaked report on ‘improving diversity’ in the security services, written by Sir Stephen Lovegrove, the UK’s national security adviser. It also advises against using gendered terms like ‘manpower’ and even words like ‘strong’ and ‘grip’, which can ‘reinforce dominant cultural patterns’. And there you have it: as Putin plays the strongman, our security bosses are saying ze and zir and advising against inappropriate usage of upsetting words like… ‘strength’.
In 1946, Walter Bedell “Beetle” Smith, who was the new ambassador to the Soviet Union, left Spaso House late at night to meet with Generalissimo Josef Stalin in the Kremlin. Winston Churchill had recently delivered his Iron Curtain speech and relations between West and East could hardly have been frostier. The Cold War had begun. The first question Smith asked the Soviet leader was “What does the Soviet Union want, and how far is Russia going to go?” Stalin was impassive. “He did not look at me directly,” Smith wrote in his memoirs, “but kept his head turned to one side, taking an occasional puff from a long Russian cigarette.” After Smith reiterated the question, Stalin looked directly at him and said, “We’re not going much further.”
Vladimir Putin has said there is broad public support for the invasion of Ukraine that he announced just before dawn on Thursday morning. But by evening, thousands of people in cities across Russia had defied police threats to take to central squares and protest against the military campaign.
Police had made at least 1,702 arrest in 53 Russian cities as of Thursday evening, according to the OVD-Info monitor, as they cracked down on the unsanctioned protests. Most of the arrests were made in Moscow and St Petersburg, where the crowds were largest.
The protesters chanted: “No to war!” as they exchanged shocked reactions to the attack on Ukraine.
In yet another… uneven press conference appearance, President Biden’s worst line was, “they are profound sanctions. Let’s have a conversation in another month or so to see if they’re working.”
It’s not clear that President Volodymyr Zelensky, the Ukrainian government, and the Ukrainian armed forces have another month. Russian and Ukrainian forces are fighting over control of Antonov Airfield, just 15 minutes from Kyiv.
