New polls show that war fatigue may be setting in
On the eve of the one-year anniversary of the Russian invasion, Western leaders have been working to demonstrate their unwavering commitment to the Ukrainian cause. As part of a surprise visit to Kyiv today, US President Joe Biden announced new military assistance and further sanctions on Moscow, while in Munich, European allies promised more military and financial support to Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
The head of the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW) has said he expects Russia’s invasion of Ukraine to continue to hamper growth and inflate costs in the German economy.
German government interventions and a mild European winter have cushioned the blow of the war and its consequences, but Europe’s largest economy is likely heading for a recession.
DIW President Marcel Fratzscher said the war and its effect on driving up energy prices have already cost the German economy about €100 billion ($107 billion), or about 2.5% of gross domestic product (GDP).
U.S. President Joe Biden made an unannounced visit to Ukraine’s capital on Monday to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, a gesture of solidarity that comes days before the one-year anniversary of Russia’s invasion of its neighbour.
Biden delivered remarks and met with Zelenskyy at Mariinsky Palace in Kyiv to announce an additional half-billion dollars in U.S. assistance and to reassure Ukraine of American and allied support as the conflict continues.
“One year later, Kyiv stands. And Ukraine stands. Democracy stands. The Americans stand with you, and the world stands with you,” Biden said.
If I were Ukraine I’d be looking to wrap things up quickly as this Biden declaration foretells abandonment.
Warning: Butt Hurt incoming🍑🔥 pic.twitter.com/VfahSJZovt
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) February 10, 2023
As morning broke over the Ukrainian city of Kherson last summer, those fumbling for their radios at 7am might have heard a Russian presenter greeting the day with his surreal imitation of a motivational video.
“As Lenin said: ‘In work we are forged.’ I too was an orangutan in a zoo, but when I started working hard I bought a car, built myself a villa in Crimea and even raised my IQ. Work as hard all day and you’ll be like me.”
Later, at 3pm, between a jazz-and-metal medley and a quiz with donuts for prizes, listeners could have heard a political discussion on the theme of “the Americans screwed up. Let’s make the Alaska People’s Republic exist” – a reference to the US state’s history under the Russian empire, before it was sold to the Americans in 1867.
What do you do when you are stuck in a war that you can neither win nor lose? This is the question that Russian President Vladimir Putin faces as his “Special Operations” against Ukraine enters its second year. The answer is: you stage trompe l’œil shows to hide the fact that you are stuck and going nowhere fast.
Last December, Putin and his propaganda machine harped on the theme of victory thanks to General winter which was supposed to clinch victory with its frozen claws. When that didn’t happen they bought a few favorable headlines by sacking their commander in Ukraine and throwing their top military chief, General Valery Gerasimov, into the lion’s den. However, it is now clear that Gerasimov, a bureaucrat in uniform with as many medals as a general in an operetta, is no miracle worker.
Less than a quarter of the modern battle tanks the West has promised to Ukraine are likely to arrive in time to counter an anticipated Russian spring offensive.
Kyiv is expecting its supporters to send up to 320 western tanks in total but estimates suggest barely 50 will reach the front lines by the start of April, prompting concerns they will not be enough to have a substantial impact on the fighting.
#Ukraine: A Russian T-90M tank was destroyed by the Ukrainian 14th Mechanized Brigade in #Kharkiv Oblast.
This is the 12th documented example of this modern platform that has been destroyed, damaged or captured in Ukraine. pic.twitter.com/wMp1bSNv3P
— 🇺🇦 Ukraine Weapons Tracker (@UAWeapons) February 19, 2023
The US has said it believes China may be about to provide lethal aid to help Russia in the war in Ukraine, prompting a direct warning against doing so from the secretary of state, Antony Blinken, to China’s top diplomat.
Blinken made the warning to the Chinese state councillor Wang Yi on Saturday evening at a meeting on the sidelines of the Munich security conference during which he also rebuked China over the use of an alleged spy balloon over US soil.
In a blunt meeting he also urged China to stop helping Russia evade the impact of sanctions. China’s trade with Russia is increasing and it has been buying Russian oil, but probably below the US$60 per barrel price cap imposed by the EU and G7 group of states.
Someone wants WW III bad.
General Mark Milley has maintained that the war in Ukraine is most likely to end with a negotiated peace. The chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff said neither Moscow nor Kyiv looks able to come out on the other side of this war having achieved their military aims.
#Ukraine: A Russian BMP-3 infantry fighting vehicle was destroyed by the Ukrainian 44th Artillery Brigade in #Zaporizhzhia Oblast. pic.twitter.com/9ecPrQAUPM
— 🇺🇦 Ukraine Weapons Tracker (@UAWeapons) February 18, 2023
Barely a day had gone by from Ukraine’s successful request for German Leopard-2 tanks when the government in Kyiv called on Nato countries to yet again prove their solidarity by supplying it with US-made F-16 fighter jets. While military experts doubt these vehicles will significantly alter the situation on the battlefield, Kyiv touts them as important symbols of Western political resolve.
A Battle Points To Major Russian Military Problems
By one account, nearly three dozen Russian tanks and armored vehicles were reduced to smoldering rubble. By another, as many as 500 Russian troops may have been killed. Relatives of soldiers from one unit are frantically trading text messages and social-media posts trying to locate their loved ones.
More than two weeks after a major clash between Russian and Ukrainian forces, details are slowly emerging as to what exactly happened in Vuhledar earlier this month.
The Wagner Group on Friday released a video of a stack of corpses to make a point about the shortage of ammunition it was facing, as its leader said he would risk arrest to get his fighters more shells and bullets.
The graphic clip, posted by a Telegram account linked to the Russian mercenary group, showed hundreds of dead bodies – allegedly of Wagner fighters – to show the human cost of the ammunition shortage.
“We’re losing our fighters every day: it would be half as much if the military officials were to supply us with weapons and ammunition on time,” an unidentified man in a hazmat suit said in the video.
Hundreds of Russian soldiers have undergone DNA examination, partly to help with inquiries into war crimes in once-occupied areas
Twice in its 90-year history the courtyard of Kharkiv’s morgue has overflowed with the dead. The first was during the Holodomor, Stalin’s man-made famine in Ukraine, regarded in this country as the Kremlin’s first attempt at genocide against its people. The second was just after the Russian invasion began a year ago and Ukraine’s second city emptied of the living, fleeing the onslaught.
The stench of the front had followed the wounded into the ward, so that the bandaged men reeked of a mixture of sweat, tobacco, soil, dried blood and disinfectant. A few still smelled of cordite. There were no loud voices, no laughter, no careless boasts of courage, no slogans of glory here.
Fresh from the horrors of Bakhmut, their limbs penetrated and shattered by flying metal, the soldiers spoke to one another softly, if at all, as they waited to have their wounds dressed before being evacuated westwards. Some were silent, staring into space as they reflected on what had brought them here.
A few days before Christmas, a convoy of security vehicles invaded a quiet corner of Weilheim, a quaint Bavarian town of pastel squares and fastidiously kept cobblestone streets. Their target seemed as unassuming as the setting: a local children’s soccer coach.
Before then, nothing had stood out about the man, fellow coaches recalled. He was not short, but not tall — friendly, yet never wanting to discuss anything but soccer. Grasping for words, most landed on the same choice: “unremarkable.”
That changed when they learned he had been arrested on charges of treason and spying for Russia in one of the gravest espionage scandals in recent German history.
This much is clear about Russia’s actions in Ukraine. It has waged an unprovoked war of aggression, repeatedly targeted civilians and been accused of war crimes ranging from systematic rape to torture.
