“Ukraine – Russia”

German government split as Olaf Scholz overrules own foreign minister over Leopard tanks

Berlin had said it would not stop Poland re-exporting tanks to Ukraine, but the chancellor has since dismissed the remark

Germany’s government appeared to be split on Monday night after chancellor Olaf Scholz overruled his own foreign minister to insist Poland would need to follow the rules over sending tanks to Ukraine.

Foreign minister Annalena Baerbock had said on Sunday that Berlin would not “stand in the way” of Warsaw re-exporting German Leopard 2 tanks to help Ukraine’s armed forces reclaim territory seized by Russia.

But on Monday a spokesman for Mr Scholz insisted Poland would have to follow an “established procedure” if it wanted to give the German-made tanks to Kyiv.

Fed up with lectures from Biden handlers? Anger at the Poles and their reparations demands?

American officials read “the riot act” to Germany after chancellor Olaf Scholz’ refusal to send Leopard tanks to Ukraine, it has been reported.

The reports of a furious dressing down came as Poland suggested it and other Nato allies may organise their own “tank alliance” without Berlin in response to the shock refusal.

Ukraine says it needs modern Western main battle tanks to push Russia out of occupied territory. Its calls have been backed by several allies including Britain.

UPDATE – Ukraine war: Germany won’t block export of its Leopard 2 tanks, foreign minister says

Germany’s foreign minister Anna Baerbock has said she “would not stand in the way” of Poland if they were to send Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine.

Ukraine has called on the West to provide the German-made tanks which they say will help them defeat Russia.

But Germany is yet to provide the armoured vehicles, and its export laws prevent other countries from sending theirs.

On Sunday, Ms Baerbock said Poland had not yet asked for export permission.

“For the moment the question has not been asked, but if we were asked we would not stand in the way,” she told France’s LCI TV on Sunday.

It is a rather wishy washy position implying that Germany may not commit and send its own Leopards – From the German press DW:

Morawiecki said that that German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock’s statement on Sunday, that Berlin would not obstruct Polish efforts to send German-made tanks to Ukraine, represented a “spark of hope” that Germany might join the coalition of countries ready to send Ukraine tanks.

“We are constantly exerting pressure on the government in Berlin to make its Leopards available,” the Polish premier said. He added that Germany has “more than 350 active Leopards and about 200 in storage.”

H/T TB

I see you stand like greyhounds in the slips, straining upon the start. So wrote William Shakespeare in Henry V. He could well have been writing about the British Army’s main battle tank, the mighty 62-tonne behemoth that is Challenger 2, which is now being sent to Ukraine.

The Challenger 2 is a weighty sort of greyhound. But ‘Chally’, as it was affectionately known by those of us crewing it, could really move. It had close to that ideal balance all tank designers are aiming for, providing protection, manoeuvrability and firepower (each of which deteriorates when you improve one of the others).

When Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered the invasion of Ukraine almost a year ago, many analysts expected a quick catharsis in line with the prevailing view of war as a short hymn to military power.

That view had taken shape over many decades as memories of wars in ancient times through the 18th century faded. The 200-year long Roman-Persian War was far away as were the Hundred Years’ War and the Thirty Years’ War in Europe. Wars became shorter and shorter. The Napoleonic Wars, starting with the French Revolution, lasted 23 years.

Kyiv had hoped for a clear green light from Germany at the Ukraine Defence Contact Group meeting at Ramstein air base on Friday to provide them with Leopard 2 battle tanks. Instead, the new German defence minister, Boris Pistorius, equivocated all day, at one stage saying it could take a month to reach a decision.

That sort of procrastination might be acceptable in peace time, but this is a war in which every day counts. We’re almost one year into the most deadly conflict in Europe since 1945 and Germany has been an unreliable partner since the start. First, they only wanted to send 5000 helmets while other countries quickly dispatched lethal weapons; now they have been dithering over tanks, dividing NATO, putting all of the West in a difficult position and – worst of all – jeopardizing Ukraine’s war effort.

Poland ready to build ‘smaller coalition’ to send tanks to Ukraine without Germany

If Germany won’t play ball, then Poland will find other partners to deliver Leopard 2 battle tanks to Ukraine, Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said in pointed remarks accusing Berlin of foot-dragging in its support of Kyiv against invading Russian forces.

Poland is prepared to go around German opposition to build a “smaller coalition” of countries and find allies willing to send the tanks to Ukraine, Morawiecki said in an interview with the Polish Press Agency published on Sunday.

“We will not passively watch Ukraine bleed to death,” Morawiecki said.

What is going on? I wonder if the Germans know or deeply suspect it was “our side” that blew up the NordStream pipes to keep them on-side.

Certainly there exists an anti-war culture but some German politicians do wish to release the Leopards.

This stubbornness may indicate pushback against the strong-arming by the US Deep State (No one seriously believes Biden runs anything). 

Ukrainian refugees marching toward the headquarters of the Bavarian wing of Chancellor Scholz’s SPD Party, calling on Germany to free the Leopard 2 tanks for Ukraine.
pic.twitter.com/7nDXX4ZkHw

— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) January 21, 2023

The allies differ on strategy for the coming year and the more immediate question of what Ukraine needs ahead of a major offensive in the spring.

… When the new British foreign secretary, James Cleverly, visited Washington this week, he gathered reporters for lunch and made the case that it is possible for Ukraine to score a “victory” in the war this year if the allies move fast to exploit Russia’s weaknesses. Officials in Poland, the Baltic States and Finland have largely agreed with the British assessment.

American officials pushed back, saying it is critical to pace the aid, and not flood Ukraine with equipment its troops cannot yet operate. And they argue that in a world of limited resources, it would be wise to keep something in reserve for what the Pentagon believes will likely be a drawn-out conflict, in which Russia will try to wear Ukraine down with relentless barrages and tactics reminiscent of World War I and II.

So the emerging “consensus” is that this will be a longer conflict and the winner is yet to be decided.

Ukraine’s army and western tech have so far proved superior, I doubt Putin can motivate the masses the way Stalin did in “The Great Patriotic War” even from the barrel of a gun.

In scenes recalling the First World War, Ukraine’s troops are calf-deep in the mud, digging yet more defences and repelling the Kremlin conscripts sent into no man’s land

The Ukrainian fighters stood calf-deep in the mud, peering over the lip of a 6ft trench they had hacked into the forest three miles from the Russian border. It was around 11am and the temperature had already hit five degrees, which, they all agreed, was far too warm.

They were hoping for a cold snap that would freeze the ground hard.

For now, the mud was everywhere: in their boots, on their hands, on the floors in the dugouts. Sticky and thick, sucking around their boots. Without noticing, during the three months they’d been dug in there, the soldiers had perfected a duck-footed amble that kept them upright even when the mud rose to their knees.

Germany’s marked reluctance to supply Leopard 2 tanks to help Ukraine repel the brutal Russian invasion has very little to do with the feeble evasions and excuses offered by Berlin, and everything to do with the long shadows cast by German history.

January 30 sees the 90th anniversary of Adolf Hitler becoming Germany’s Chancellor, yet the 12 brief years of Nazi rule inflicted such deep wounds on the country and the wider world that they have dictated German policy ever since.

Does Olaf Scholz expect America to clear up Europe’s mess?

It’s been nearly a year since the Chancellor of Germany stood before the Bundestag and gravely proclaimed a Zeitenwende, a tectonic shift in the nation’s defence policy. There would be a special fund of €100 billion to beef up the hopelessly under-equipped Bundeswehr, or armed forces. Olaf Scholz also promised to ramp up defence spending to 2% of GDP, in line with NATO rules (and, awkwardly, Donald Trump’s demands). Zeitenwende crucially, moreover, implied stepping up for Ukraine. But not much of that has happened since.

Ukraine says it has exposed a network of informers who guided missile attacks on the city of Dnipro, including a devastating strike on an apartment block that killed at least 46 people.

The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), the national intelligence service, said it had detained seven suspects who were allegedly recruited by a former resident of Dnipro who fled to Russia and began working for its GRU military intelligence service.

After breaking away from decades of cosy relationships with Moscow, Germany is reluctant to unilaterally escalate for the war in Ukraine

There is one question everyone wants answering on the war in Ukraine: will Germany ‘release the Leopards’?

The answer, at this stage, appears to be a resounding no.

Olaf Scholz, the German Chancellor, is the politician tasked with making or breaking the dreams of Ukrainians on the front lines.

Only he can approve the export of Leopard II held by Germany and its allies to Kyiv.

It seems a strange allegiance… Majority Of Western Companies Doing Business As Usual In Russia Are German, Study Finds

CIA Director William J. Burns traveled in secret to Ukraine’s capital at the end of last week to brief President Volodymyr Zelensky on his expectations for what Russia is planning militarily in the coming weeks and months, said a U.S. official and other people familiar with the visit.

Burns’s travel comes at a critical juncture in the 11-month war. Russian forces are mounting a massive assault near the eastern city of Bakhmut that is causing many casualties on both sides and forcing Ukraine to weigh its resources there as it prepares a major counteroffensive elsewhere in the country.