The news over the weekend had binary stories about the ongoing situation on the Ukraine border, where Putin is amassing tanks and troops. On the one side, we have stories about Biden doing the tough guy thing, with his talk about troops on the ground and his orders that diplomats’ families leave Ukraine. However, on the other side, the European side, the two biggest E.U. nations are trying to set up their own peace talks with Ukraine and Russia.
Ukraine
The West Barks, But the Putin Caravan Moves On
The dangerous delusions about “diplomatic engagement.”
For nearly two decades Russian President Vladimir Putin has challenged the West’s “rules-based international order” seemingly validated by the collapse of the Soviet Union, which Putin has called “the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century.” During that time, Western leaders have imposed economic sanctions on Russia, and diplomats have scolded Putin for his violation of human rights and the borders of his neighbors, illiberal policies and murders of political rivals, and ongoing attempts to restore the old Soviet domination of Eastern Europe.
What would a Russian invasion of Ukraine trigger for the EU?
Warnings from the West are becoming ever clearer, with many seeing a Russian invasion of Ukraine as a growing possibility.
Russia has amassed 100,000 troops on its border with Ukraine and NATO is sending ships and fighter jets into Eastern Europe — in direct contravention of the Kremlin’s demands, which wants those forces removed.
For Europe, there presents a serious conundrum: What to do if Russian troops cross the border and invade Ukraine?
Trudeau cabinet will weigh further support for Ukraine during retreat – Daring Putin Caricature With Stink Vapors Rumoured To Feature Prominently On Revamped #StandWithUkraine Campaign
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau says how Canada will respond to continued Russian threats against Ukraine will be on the agenda for a three-day virtual cabinet retreat set to get underway Monday.
The federal cabinet is meeting as tensions remain high over a potential Russian incursion into Ukraine. NATO officials announced earlier in the day that additional forces from the military alliance are being put on standby to deploy into eastern Europe as part of a bid to deter Russia.
Majority of Canadians are open to assisting Ukraine, poll finds
A national poll shows that a majority of Canadians support or are open to providing assistance to Ukraine as Russia threatens invasion.
A survey of 1,000 Canadians done by Abacus Data between Jan. 20-21 and organized by the Ukrainian Canadian Congress found that 83 per cent were in favour or neutral towards Canada helping Ukraine protect its borders.
Seventy-five per cent also said they supported or could accept providing weapons to Ukraine.
I think the poll is a realistic reflection of Canadian expectations, do something knowing we really can’t do much.
Ukraine slams Biden’s ‘excessive caution’ for withdrawing embassy staff
Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson blasted Joe Biden on Monday for pulling US embassy personnel and relatives of staff out of Kyiv.
‘We have taken note of [the State Department]’s decision re departure of family members of [US Embassy in Kyiv] staff,’ spokesman Oleg Nikolenko wrote on Twitter in the early hours of Monday morning.
‘While we respect right (sic) of foreign nations to ensure safety & security of foreign nations to ensure safety & security of their diplomatic missions, we believe such a step to be a premature one & an instance of excessive caution.’
Why Ukraine Wouldn’t Be a Cakewalk For Russia
For all the assessments of Putin as a geopolitical mastermind, he could be in over his head when it comes to Ukraine.
When will Russian president Vladimir Putin strike Ukraine again? It may be sooner than you think. President Joe Biden stated in his recent press conference that he’s convinced that Russian troops will attack, and Washington’s national security establishment is on edge.
Right now, more than 100,000 Russian troops plus an array of tanks and weapons surround Ukraine from three sides. Last week, a cyberattack hit a number of Ukrainian government websites to test their vulnerabilities and weaknesses. Russia also sent soldiers into Belarus (no one knows exactly how many) and six Russian ships are on the move to the Black Sea where they could be deployed as part of an amphibious attack on Ukraine from the south. Meanwhile, the troop numbers keep climbing.
Ukrainian communities watch, wonder how far Canada will go to protect their ancestral homeland
A danger lurks near Ukraine these days, though an uninformed observer might be forgiven for not noticing.
In the streets of Lviv, in the country’s west, people are going about their daily business, even as a standoff between Vladimir Putin’s Russia and western allies threatens to bring war to their doorstep, says Christine Eliashevsky.
“Many Ukrainians are probably anxious, but they will not admit it, because they have been through so many ups and downs in 30 years of independence,” Eliashevsky told the Star from her home in Lviv.
My bet is Trudeau will be very German about this.
Is Putin Bluffing in Ukraine?
The public has been so busy waiting for the war in Ukraine to start that it hasn’t noticed how much of it has already happened since it started in 2014, when the near-success of the Ukrainian government counteroffensive against Russian-backed militias forced Moscow to commit conventional forces to save the effort. Although “Ukraine, Russia, the DPR, and the LPR signed an agreement to establish a ceasefire, called the Minsk Protocol, on 5 September 2014,” the brigades had entered the stage.
German navy chief Schönbach resigns for saying quiet part out loud about Ukraine
German navy chief resigns over Ukraine comments
The head of the German navy has resigned over controversial comments he made over Ukraine.
Kay-Achim Schönbach said the idea that Russia wanted to invade Ukraine was nonsense. He added that all President Vladimir Putin wanted was respect.
A number of countries have supplied weapons to Ukraine, including the US and UK. But Germany has refused Ukraine’s request for ammunition.
Russia has denied claims that it is planning to invade Ukraine.
German navy chief Schönbach resigns over comments on Putin, Crimea
Germany faced a diplomatic incident on Saturday following comments made by Navy chief Kay-Achim Schönbach on Russian President Vladimir Putin and the Ukraine crisis. Schönbach stepped down from his position late on Saturday.
Schönbach made the comments during a talk that he gave in a visit to India. Speaking at the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, the German vice admiral said Putin “probably” deserved respect.
“What he really wants is respect,” the vice admiral said, speaking in English in remarks that were posted on a video on YouTube.
Do Ukrainians and Russians believe a full-scale war is possible?
“You can’t interview me I’m kind of famous in Ukraine ha ha!”
OK, I confess I didn’t know who the woman was, but her thoughts didn’t exactly seem preoccupied by a possible invasion on her country.
Her mood is matched by many at the snowy Kyiv food market we cross paths in, which wouldn’t look out of place on a Christmas card.
“Russia can do anything thanks to Putin, who is unpredictable,” says Volodymyr, who’s less concerned about his celebrity status.
“As long as Putin is there, risk will always remain.”
Germany blocks Estonian arms exports to Ukraine: report
Germany is said to be blocking Estonia from providing German-origin military support to Ukraine, US newspaper The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported on Friday.
The report comes after the US State Department gave Estonia the green light to send US-made weapons to Ukraine.
According to the WSJ report, Berlin has refused to issue permits so that the weapons can be exported to Kyiv.
Ukraine embassy asks to speak to somebody in charge after Trudeau’s $120M loan announced
‘We have hundreds of Russian tanks and armoured vehicles deployed along the Ukrainian border… The U.K. and the U.S. have already shipped the military equipment and we would appreciate if Canada follows suit’
Profiles In Courage: Trudeau offers Ukraine $120M loan as it confronts threat of Russian invasion
Canada today offered Ukraine a $120 million dollar loan to help the eastern European nation face down what Prime Minister Justin Trudeau called an “aggressive” attempt by Russia to destabilize it.
The prime minister also hinted at more military assistance for Ukraine, while insisting again that Moscow “de-escalate” and refrain from further invading and occupying Ukrainian territory.
The federal government said the loan announced today is meant to go toward “economic resilience and governance reforms.” The terms of the loan are to be negotiated with the government of President Volodomyr Zelensky in Kyiv.
If Trump Had Greenlighted Russia To Invade Ukraine Like Biden Just Did, He’d Be Accused Of Corruption
President Biden was actually operating from a coherent perspective in discussing Russia and Ukraine in Wednesday’s press conference: In every instance, as you go line-for-line in the transcript, his foreign policy—and the fact that he announced it to the world—is one where Russia has leverage over Biden and the president has a personal vendetta against the current Ukrainian government.
Beware the Ides of February
If you’re not making an extra effort to find some well reasoned thinking about the developing crisis in Ukraine, I’m not sure what to do for you. Well, perhaps I can point you in a direction to some of the better thinking on the issue I’ve found out there.
One of the best this week comes from Rob Lee over at FPRI.
He sets the table for you right off the bat in the first paragraph;
How ambitious are Russia’s foreign policy objectives, and how much force does Moscow believe it must employ to achieve them? Moscow has submitted various ultimatums, but the most critical and pressing issue is that the Kremlin now regards Ukraine as a permanently hostile country continuing to increase its defense capabilities. Russian hopes for improved relations with President Volodymyr Zelensky were dashed in 2021, and Moscow is now focused on reducing the long-term security risk posed by Ukraine, including halting its expanding defense cooperation with NATO. However, this is one of the most unrealistic and difficult demands for NATO to satisfy, particularly because Ukraine is developing long-range missiles domestically. This diplomatic impasse suggests a significant risk of a Russian military escalation in Ukraine with few obvious offramps.
h/t Jojodogfacedboy