A Free World Opportunity

In the turmoil of revolutions and the fall of empires, history sometimes seems to extend a helping hand: the opportunity, in this instance, to end at least one expansionist movement that has been threatening the West. The possible destruction of the mullahs’ regime in Iran would not merely represent a geopolitical victory; it would mark the dawn of an era in which the idea that all human societies must be governed by Allah’s law and not by men could finally be escorted back to where it came from.

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Europe Needs to Hear This Harsh Truth

Shipping and military expert John Konrad spent all day in D.C. on Tuesday talking to his military sources and concluded that “the Navy appears to be in no rush to reopen the strait,” even while Iran dictates whose oil tankers are allowed to pass.

“What is this administration trying to leverage?” Konrad wondered, and that nobody he talked to was willing to discuss the fate of Hormuz “until European politicians and media stop calling Americans war criminals and monsters.”

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‘A million things could go wrong’ – why seizing Iran’s uranium would be so risky for the US

US troops storming a secretive, underground nuclear facility to seize Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium may sound far-fetched, but it is an option President Donald Trump is reportedly considering to achieve his main objective in the war: preventing the regime from developing nuclear weapons.

Such an operation would be extremely challenging and fraught with danger, according to military experts and former US defence officials who spoke to the BBC. They said it would require the deployment of ground troops and could take several days or even weeks to complete.

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Who has asked Trump for a ceasefire?

Trump says “Iran’s New Regime President” has asked him for a ceasefire.

It is not clear who he is referring to.

Since the US and Israel began air strikes on Iran on 28 February, a number of senior Iranian leaders have been killed, including the country’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.


And …

Oil price falls and markets rally after Trump says Iran war over in ‘two to three weeks’

Oil prices tumbled and stock markets have rallied across the world after Donald Trump said the war in Iran would end in “two to three weeks”.

Brent crude, an international benchmark for oil, fell as low as $98.35 a barrel on Wednesday, down more than 15% on the previous day and its lowest level in a week. It later recovered some ground, down 2.5% on the day at $101.


Plus …

Trump’s threatened to leave Nato before – but this time he’s angrier at alliance members

Of all the warnings in President Trump’s arsenal, leaving the Nato military alliance is among those he’s wielded the most. He almost did it in his first term.

Nato’s former chief Jens Stoltenberg said “we saw clear signs that Trump was preparing to act on his threat”, in his recent memoir On My Watch.

Stoltenberg recounted how he went on Fox News and credited Trump with pressuring Nato allies to increase their military spending.

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Hegseth calls on US allies to ‘step up’ over Strait of Hormuz

US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth has called on allies to “step up” over the Strait of Hormuz, echoing earlier comments from President Donald Trump.

On Tuesday morning, Trump wrote on social media to tell countries to “go get your own oil”, adding that “the U.S.A. won’t be there to help you anymore, just like you weren’t there for us”.

Hegseth reiterated the president’s view during a news conference on Tuesday, saying it was not just the job of the US to secure what he called a “critical waterway”.

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Trump slams allies as Italy blocks U.S. use of air base for Iran war

ROME — As President Donald Trump amped up criticism of NATO countries for refusing to do more in the Iran war on Tuesday, European allies were doubling down on their resistance.

Italy in recent days denied landing rights to U.S. war planes seeking to land at Sigonella base in eastern Sicily after determining their flight plans were linked to the war effort, according to a senior Italian official.

That revelation — involving a nation led by a key Trump ally, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni — emerged a day after Spain said it had gone further in its direct opposition to the war, now refusing not only use of its bases, but also overflight rights to aircraft involved in the conflict, its defense minister said.

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Strait of Hormuz to be run by multinational coalition under White House plan

A multinational consortium will take over the management of the Strait of Hormuz under plans put forward by the Trump administration.

Diplomatic sources told The Telegraph that Marco Rubio, the US secretary of state, presented the idea last week at a meeting of G7 foreign ministers.

Mr Rubio stressed there would be “no fees, and free circulation” through the key shipping route, according to one interpretation of his intervention.

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Spain closes airspace to US military over Iran war, widening rift with US

Spain has ramped up its opposition to the US-Israel war on Iran by closing its airspace to US aircraft involved in attacks, underlining its position as Europe’s leading critic of the conflict.

The move, first reported by El País newspaper and confirmed by the defence minister on Monday, comes after Madrid said the US could not use jointly operated military bases in the country for operations related to the war.

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The Victory Option

There are two kinds of people: the kind of people who want to end the Iran War and people who want to win the Iran War. The Victory Option encompasses the goal of the first kind of people because it ends the war, but ending the war is not the proper objective. The proper objective in any war is to win it. Anyone glancing at social media sees people with an absolute commitment to America’s defeat. And defeat comes about only if Donald Trump chooses to quit the war – because the Iranians can’t make us do anything since they don’t have a nuclear bomb, thanks to Donald Trump – in a way that doesn’t achieve victory. Victory means regime change. Once again, remember your Clausewitz – war is simply politics with other means. This is a political struggle. The military aspect is just how it’s being done, not what’s being done.

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Israel targets Iran’s leaders with lethal expertise using new AI platform

TEL AVIV — As U.S. and Israeli military commanders met to map out war with Iran, they deliberated over how to divide responsibility for an array of targets, including missile batteries, military bases and nuclear sites.

It was clear from the outset, however, that one grim mission would belong to Israel: hunting and killing Iran’s leaders.

Israel has pursued this assignment with ruthless efficiency, killing Iran’s supreme leader in the opening salvo of the war and more than 250 other “senior Iranian officials” since, according to a count maintained by the Israeli military. The latest blow came Thursday when Israel said it had killed the naval commander of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

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Iran’s Wealth Is Parked on London’s Billionaires’ Row

Years of Western sanctions haven’t prevented money flows out of Tehran: ‘They probably learned from the Russian oligarchs’

On a leafy residential stretch of North London dubbed Billionaires’ Row, Saudi royals and wealthy Russians have long come shopping for high-end real estate. The Iranians were a more surprising addition to the neighborhood.

Several sprawling mansion plots along the thoroughfare more formally known as The Bishops Avenue make up a chunk of the extensive London property holdings funded by Iranian money that Western officials have linked to the country’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

Iranian banker Ali Ansari acquired the Bishops Avenue plots and other nearby property in 2018 for around 90 million pounds, equivalent to around $120 million today, according to people familiar with the deal. The transaction took place offshore through an entity registered in the Isle of Man, the people said.

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The First Alt-War: Online Fantasy vs. Reality in the Iran Campaign

While commentators trade in familiar fears, events on the ground point to a far more decisive outcome than the online debate suggests.

A commentator in (mirabile dictu) The Washington Post made an excellent point about how the war in Iran is being understood. “We are living through the first alt-war,” the Tel Aviv University scholar Jen Brick Murtazashvili wrote. On the one hand, we have the war as it is fought online. On the other, we have the war as it is fought in reality, on the ground. The two “have diverged so completely,” Murtazashvili noted, “that they might as well be happening on different planets. It’s not that people lack information; it’s more that they are constructing an entirely different alternate reality—one that confirms what they already believe.”

The white liberal woman’s war

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How could US forcibly reopen strait of Hormuz and what are the risks?

Kharg Island – sounds like a Klingon retirement resort

The arrival of American ground invasion forces in the Middle East over the weekend provides Donald Trump with the muscle for a perilous attempt to forcibly open the strait of Hormuz, Iran’s biggest pressure point in the war.

Iran’s chokehold on the strait, through which a fifth of the world’s oil trade normally passes, gives Tehran leverage that Trump understands, sending oil prices rocketing to more than $100 a barrel. The American president says he’s prepared to give diplomacy a chance, though bombing of Iran continues.

But even for talks, the dealmaker will seek a better hand. Trump said on Sunday that he wants to “take the oil in Iran”.


From the Commander and Chief …

h/t Mauser

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The Houthis Have Entered the Iran War – Here’s What That Could Mean

New Ballistic Missiles Displayed at the Houthi Military Parade

The war in Iran has taken another turn as Yemen’s Houthi rebels enter the conflict.

The Houthis fired a barrage of ballistic missiles at southern Israel on Saturday, opening up what could be a dangerous new front in a regional conflict that has already killed thousands and affected energy markets on a global scale.

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