Policy-makers should pay attention to per capita GDP before they rush to encourage more immigration.
The recent release of the Census Bureau’s population estimates, which show the U.S. population has grown by “only” 393,000 between 2020 and 2021, has prompted a number of commentators to argue that we need more immigration to increase population growth. Otherwise, we are told, the country will be “older, less productive, and less dynamic.”
The view that “population growth is inextricably linked to economic growth,” while widespread, is mistaken for several reasons. Although immigration can certainly increase a country’s population, it is well established that it has only a small impact on the share of the population that is working-age. And while slower population growth—and the societal aging that generally accompanies it—will certainly require some adjustments, our economic future is not bleak on that account. Equally important, having a more stable population offers some significant benefits that population-boosters overlook.
