Russia’s war against Ukraine has run smack into the irony of history. History records that wars start because various heads of state or their commanders believe in at least three ideas: first, this war will be comparatively short; second, this war will end in a victory for our side; third, the cost of war, in terms of military and civilian casualties and economic losses, will be comparatively small relative to the expected gains. In addition, net assessments of the enemy’s goals and capabilities, when they are done at all, are frequently obtuse and based on outdated information or biased interpretations.
