Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was largely predictable but it also brought some surprises. It was quite expected that the current U.S. administration would try to draw Russia into the “Ukrainian swamp” in order to weaken and isolate it as much as possible. It was expected that the inexperienced and naive Ukrainian leader would trust the promises of the Biden team and let them to drag his country into a devastating gamble.
It was expected that Russia, seeking to restore its former empire, would use Western provocations to establish its presence in a weak and corrupt Ukraine. It was completely unexpected that instead of a modern, maneuverable, and highly organized Russian army, we saw poorly trained troops erasing entire cities from the face of the earth like nomadic hordes. A terrifying surprise has been the use by the Kremlin against its brothers in blood and faith of the Chechen and Syrian militants. Finally, the biggest surprise was the desperate courage of the Ukrainians themselves and the high combat readiness of their armed forces.
This war will not end in the near future. Most likely, it will lead to the destruction of Ukraine and the extreme weakening of Russia, exhausted by excessive exertion of forces and sanctions.
