Vladimir Putin has prepared the ground for a drastic cut in supplies of both oil and gas at any moment, giving him the means to strike a psychological hammer blow against the Western democracies before a global recession erodes his energy leverage.
The coming weeks may be his best chance to try to force the West to the table on Russian strategic terms, locking in territorial gains on Ukraine’s Black Sea coast and in the Donbass before the delivery of heavy weapons from NATO raises the military cost for Russia to excruciating levels.
Mr Putin spelled out his operating premise at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum in late June, calling the EU’s sanctions policy a double-edged sword that would cause Europe to lose its footing in the global economy and lead to a “system-wide decline” for years to come. He left no doubt that generating inflation in the West is a primary goal.
