Viewed purely in terms of the size of their formations and equipment, Russian ground forces in Ukraine still pose a serious threat on a number of axes. In practice, however, it is highly unlikely the Russian military can recover from its increasingly terminal trajectory on the battlefield, though its defeat will take time and bitter fighting. To understand why, it is necessary to examine the force beyond its equipment and personnel.
The US assesses military capability through the abbreviation DOTMLPF. That senior US officers regularly try to roll this off the tongue as an acronym may exemplify military absurdity, but the abbreviation is somewhat redeemed by being fairly comprehensive. It stands for: doctrine, organisation, training, materiel, leadership and education, personnel and facilities. Looking at the Russian military across these categories reveals why it is underperforming its potential and struggling to regenerate.
Corruption, poor morale in a conscript army that either doesn’t know or believe why or for what it’s fighting, antiquated and or poorly designed equipment.
That’s a lot of crap to surmount.
Will the Russians be able to recover as they did in WW II? The Finns walloped them early but then succumbed to sheer weight of numbers.
They eventually defeated the Germans with a horrific sacrifice of men and machines but they cannot rely on vast reserves of manpower or lend lease to bail them out as in WW II.
