PERHAPS the first thing to say is that few people in the West at the beginning of the year really expected that Putin would actually invade – I certainly did not, and I put my hand up to having totally ‘misappreciated’ the situation.
The Ukrainians, however, did expect it. They planned and acted for the worst case – a very sensible military precept. They quietly mobilised their reserves in the weeks leading up to the invasion and prepared defences. They also took on board substantial training and weapon supplies from the US and Britain. People out there are quite clear that had it not been for these preparations and this assistance, it would all have been over in three or four days. As it was, the Ukrainians outnumbered the invaders on ground and in weather suitable for the defence; and fought a classic asymmetric campaign – in the sense that all warfare is asymmetrical as each side seeks to pit its strengths against their opponents’ weaknesses.
