MONTREAL—On Monday, Justin Trudeau’s government will enter a make-or-break parliamentary season. Given the average life of past minority governments, this could well be the last full year of the prime minister’s third term. More than a few Liberals fear it could also be the closing chapter of their party’s tenure in power.
Back in 2015, Trudeau rode to power on a cyclical wave of change. In the next election, the Liberals will be running against the tide. In recent Canadian history, no federal incumbent has ever managed to win a fourth consecutive term. This prime minister has never lost a political battle, but there is a first time for everything.
