In 1992, P. D. James published Children of Men. The novel is set in 2021 in the United Kingdom. James’ world is one in which no children have been born since 1995. Male fertility has since been zero and no woman has been able to have a baby. James’s dystopia is one of economic, societal, and political collapse, driven by the lack of children.
Our own world is not teetering on the brink of this scenario. However, birth rates are plummeting across the globe, especially in OECD countries. Conservative estimates put the global population peak at around 2060, followed by a decline into the twenty-second century. Many nations are already in the midst of a demographic collapse, with modernized Asian economies leading the way. Japan’s fertility rate in 2020 was 1.34, whilst South Korea’s was an appalling 0.78 as of 2022. This rate is appalling because the minimum replacement fertility rate is 2.1. For a population to sustain itself, women need to, on average, bear 2.1 or more children. This low-fertility scenario might sound attractive if your environmental policy boat is floated by the idea of fewer human beings. However, James’ dystopia ought to make us think twice about the virtues of population collapse.
