It’s a Conservative stronghold — but here’s why Pierre Poilievre’s Tories will be closely watching this byelection on Monday

OTTAWA — Who wins Monday’s byelection in the riding of Durham likely won’t set off a political earthquake in Ottawa — but there could be aftershocks.

The riding, about an hour from downtown Toronto, has returned a Conservative MP consistently since Stephen Harper took over the party in 2004.

It even gave the Tories a leader — Erin O’Toole, whose resignation last year after being kicked out as leader opened the door for Monday’s vote.