Conservative candidate Don Stewart has won the longtime federal Liberal stronghold of Toronto-St. Paul’s, a stunning result that raises questions about Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s future.
Stewart’s victory is shocking because the seat has been held by the Liberals for more than 30 years — even through the party’s past low points, such as the 2011 federal election that returned just 34 Liberal MPs to Parliament.
Before Monday’s vote, a Conservative candidate hadn’t been competitive in Toronto-St. Paul’s since the 1980s. The party hadn’t won a seat in urban Toronto since the 2011 federal election.

CTV – Conservatives take late lead to win Toronto byelection
Globe – Conservatives take Toronto riding in major upset for Liberals
NatPo – Byelection calamity for Trudeau as Conservatives scoop Liberal stronghold in Toronto
The Star – Conservatives score upset win Toronto—St. Paul’s byelection
Thank you Nasty Bitch Freeland!
Thank you Freeland this speech with your offensive & condescending labels ensured our victory in Toronto St Paul’s riding ! pic.twitter.com/sdmLNa7DEK
— Concerned Canadian (@Concern70732755) June 25, 2024
Prediction – All of Trudeau’s media who declared an LPC win to be a national endorsement of Trudeau will now declare St. Paul’s an insignificant loss in the grand scheme of things.
