Donald Trump, at the time of writing, has a 47pc chance of winning November’s US election. On July 16, three days after the Republican presidential candidate narrowly avoided death at a Pennsylvania rally, it peaked at 72pc. At the start of the year it was around 40pc.
These numbers are based on close to $1bn (£750m) wagered on Polymarket, a cryptocurrency-based predictions website, by wannabe super-forecasters who believe they can beat the polls.
