In both the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, pollsters underestimated Donald Trump’s level of support. Using 538‘s election day polling averages, the Democratic candidate’s national lead over Trump was 3.9 points lower than the polls predicted in 2020 and 1.8 points lower in 2016. This pattern looks set to continue with Kamala Harris in 2024, and part of the issue stems from how pollsters estimate turnout.
