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Pollsters Were Blindsided by Breadth of Trump Win

WASHINGTON—Pollsters as a group had prepared Americans for a very close presidential race, and that is the way it turned out in several battleground states. But the polling performance was a big miss in another way: The pervasiveness of Donald Trump’s popularity wasn’t fully telegraphed to the public.

Trump appears to have won Wisconsin over Kamala Harris by a single percentage point, compared with a final FiveThirtyEight.com average of a 1-point Harris edge. Trump won Georgia by 2 points, compared with a final average finding of a 0.8-point Trump lead. He won North Carolina by 3 points, compared with his 1-point edge in the final polling average. That is within the ballpark of what polls can offer.

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