President-elect Donald Trump’s plan to slap a 25% tariff on Mexico’s goods unless it stops fentanyl trafficking and illegal migration risks setting the trade partners on a collision course over an intractable challenge for both countries.
Ahead of the new trade negotiations, Mexico’s greatest weakness has been its historic inability to confront the powerful drug gangs that control about a third of the country. Mexico has had success stopping immigration over the past year, but ending drug smuggling might be an impossible ask, in part because of strong demand in the U.S.
Fentanyl is cheap to produce and easily smuggled. In some large areas of Mexico, organized crime groups dominate local and state officials. Different attempts to fight the gangs, sometimes with U.S. support, have led to violence at home without making any dents on the drug business.
