Despite the unpredictability of our current world, people continue to make predictions about geopolitical matters of which they cannot know. One prediction currently being thrown around, spurred by the flurry of optimism following the ousting of Bashar al-Assad in Syria, is that of the imminent demise of the regime in Iran. Conservative MP Tom Tugendhat, speaking on the Conflicted podcast this week, declared that “the Iranian regime will collapse within a few years”, adding to a string of media commentary along similar lines.
The thinking here is that Hamas, Hezbollah, and Assad are the crucial dominoes whose fall will precipitate that of the mullahs in Tehran. With the regime naked and its imperial project on life support, the Iranian people will mobilise, and the faltering theocracy will crumble.
