The 2025 federal election delivered a fourth consecutive Liberal government under Mark Carney—but not the majority many expected. And the key reason? An underwhelming performance in the suburbs of the Greater Toronto Area, where the party lost six seats, or seven if you count the new riding of Milton East–Halton Hills South. The Conservatives made significant gains, especially in York Region, and those losses cost the Liberals their shot at majority territory.
That result stings for a party that improved its vote share across Ontario and benefited from a collapsed NDP vote. So, what happened?
