Elections are messy, emotional, and complex, and the 2025 Canadian federal election was no exception. In the weeks since the results came in, I’ve consumed a lot of commentary, analysis, and hot takes from journalists, pundits, campaign operatives, and academics. Some of it matches what I saw in the data. But a lot of it doesn’t.
Since early March, Abacus Data has conducted eight national surveys, interviewing over 20,000 Canadians. We also fielded a comprehensive post-election survey with 1,500 eligible voters in the days immediately following election day. These polls give us a uniquely detailed picture of what happened. And not just how people voted, but why.
