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How likely is regime change in Iran now?

The Israeli hope is for ordinary Iranians to rise up against a regime in disarray and free the Iranian people once and for all

The clue is in the name of Israel’s operation. “Operation Rising Lion” is a direct reference to the Pahlavi flag which shows a lion standing proud against the backdrop of a glowing orb, the sun. In Persian this is called the “Shir-e Khorshid.” For many years now, Netanyahu has sought to speak directly to Iranians, attempting to transcend the Islamic Republic, and to present himself as the savior of the Iranian people. These ongoing strikes are simply a continuation of this policy, and Israel’s determination to avoid civilian casualties (something we’ve not seen in Gaza) feeds into its desire for an anti-regime uprising caused by elite splits and popular rage.

Wishful thinking? Iranians are likely gun-shy. Obama turned a blind eye to previous anti-regime efforts.

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