The European Union has experienced quite a few shocks over the past two decades. The most significant one was not Covid, or Brexit, or the Ukraine war. It was the sovereign debt crisis. The fairytale story is that Mario Draghi single-handedly ended the crisis when he told the world that he would do “whatever it takes” to save the euro. He was the president of the European Central Bank when he announced a backstop. It is a convenient explanation because it assumes that the crisis is over.
I am going to put my head on the block to predict that this crisis could come back sooner than we think. Last time, it was the southern Europeans who triggered it. This time, it is the northern Europeans with their relentless push for an increase in defence spending to 5% of GDP.
