Consensus analysis of the 2025 election results includes this thesis: centre-left ‘progressive’ voters abandoned the NDP and voted for the Liberals under Prime Minister Carney and gave him his victory.
Why? Two broad reasons: 1) to unite against Donald Trump and 2) to unite against the possibility that Pierre Poilievre could be prime minister.
Of course, there is more to it than that, but there’s no question that the worst showing for the NDP in history was accretive to the Liberals and that ‘progressive’ voters gave Mark Carney his victory against Pierre Poilievre despite Pierre’s strong showing – the best vote percentage for a Conservative campaign since 1988.
