On December 29, protests erupted among shopkeepers in Tehran, Zanjan, and Hamadan — all clustered in Iran’s north and west. Then came Qeshm, isolated on the southern coast.
That location matters. Qeshm Island sits just 60 kilometers across the Strait of Hormuz from the United Arab Emirates (UAE). That is roughly the distance from Manhattan to Philadelphia, and far shorter than most successful Mediterranean crossings from Syria to Europe.
If Iran’s current instability deepens into a full crisis, Iranians may well attempt these crossings by boat. The proximity of Iran to the UAE makes it virtually inevitable.
