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New York State Is Headed for a Decade of Population Decline

The net outflow of New Yorkers to other states has topped the 1 million mark since 2020, while the flow of migrants into the Empire State from other countries was even larger than originally estimated during that same period, according to the latest U.S. Census Bureau estimates.

But New York was also hit hard by what the Census Bureau calls a “historic decline in net international migration”—meaning far fewer immigrants arriving from abroad—over the 12 months from July 2024 through June 2025. With New Yorkers continuing to leave the state at a steady pace, a modest two-year rebound in the Empire State’s population came to a halt—with all signs pointing to renewed decline in the second half of this decade.

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