For years, officials in Brussels and across Europe operated on a shared assumption: that Russia would not be in a position to directly challenge NATO before 2029. That date became a strategic comfort zone—time to rearm, coordinate, and reassure domestic publics. That certainty is now eroding rapidly.
According to The Wall Street Journal, a growing number of European political and military leaders now believe Moscow could test NATO—and the European Union—much sooner than previously expected. Such a move would not necessarily take the form of a full-scale invasion, but a limited, rapid, and carefully calibrated incursion designed to exploit Europe’s hesitation and internal divisions.
