Western and other intelligence agencies last week told the United Nations that Al-Qaeda now has 25,000 members globally. Much of the ensuing press coverage has seized on the contrast: on 11 September 2001, the organisation was thought to have numbered just 500. The not-so-subtle implication here — that the Global War on Terror was worse than useless — must be resisted.
The figures themselves should be treated with scepticism. Assessing the size of militant groups, even non-clandestine ones, is fraught. Intelligence agencies presumably have sources researchers do not. Reliable or not, though, visibility is not the main issue.
