There is something almost too convenient in how quickly Canadians point south when discussing unpredictability in trade. Yes, Donald Trump has long been synonymous with volatility. But focusing solely on Washington risks missing a more uncomfortable truth: Ottawa has become just as difficult to read.
Under Mark Carney, Canada’s posture toward the United States has shifted with surprising speed—less theatrical than Trump’s, but no less consequential. In April 2025, we were promised a renewed economic and security partnership. By the summer, we were told the existing deal was already the best possible outcome. Fast forward to April 2026, and suddenly our reliance on the U.S. is framed as a strategic weakness. All of this, notably, after months without meaningful engagement or negotiation.
