A Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be one of the most dangerous and consequential events of the 21st century, an event that would make the Russian attack on Ukraine look like a sideshow by comparison. It could quickly have ramifications far beyond the island, drawing in Japan, South Korea, and the United States and other countries of Nato.
America’s role as guarantor of global freedom of navigation and defender of “Law of the Sea” treaties is taking a hit. The Biden administration continues to dither rather than to act decisively in liquidating the capability of Iran’s proxy, the Yemeni Houthis, who have been effectively blocking passage of commercial ships in and out of the Red Sea, decimating traffic through the Suez Canal. The December 31 counterattack by US naval helicopter gunships, which sank three Houthi attack boats, was a good start but did not solve the problem.
Taiwan has told Elon Musk that it is “not for sale” after the billionaire businessmen waded into the sensitive issue of its relationship with China.
The sharp rebuke from Joseph Wu, the Taiwanese foreign minister, followed a comment from Mr Musk in which he compared the island democracy of 23.5 million to the state of Hawaii.
“Their [Beijing’s] policy has been to reunite Taiwan with China. From their standpoint, maybe it is analogous to Hawaii or something like that, like an integral part of China that is arbitrarily not part of China mostly because … the US Pacific Fleet has stopped any sort of reunification effort by force,” the Tesla owner told the All-In Summit in Los Angeles this week.
Elon loves Communist China.
Taiwanese officials talk tough. Are they as prepared as they claim?
On a recent trip to Taiwan as a guest of its Ministry of Foreign Affairs, I knew that war with an increasingly belligerent China is a daily possibility. Chinese ships are in constant circulation in the Taiwan Strait. Chinese aircraft unceasingly fly near the island, getting close to Taiwanese air space. Beijing’s increasingly threatening language about forced “unification” seems to bring a catastrophic attack closer. Genuine fear fluttered in the wake of Nancy Pelosi’s visit in August last year when China launched three days of drills that paid no regard to what they called the “imaginary” median line, which divides Chinese from Taiwanese territory.
WASHINGTON – Secretary of State Antony Blinken raised eyebrows Monday, telling reporters the US “does not support Taiwan independence” after meeting in Beijing with officials including Chinese President Xi Jinping.
Blinken’s statement ruffled the feathers of many Republicans in Congress, who viewed the statement – and the secretary’s inability to re-establish military-to-military communications – as an inappropriate kowtow to America’s greatest adversary.
BREAKING: Speaking in China, @SecBlinken says, "We do not support Taiwan independence." pic.twitter.com/f34G6BShWY
— Simon Ateba (@simonateba) June 19, 2023
h/t Mauser
The U.S. government is preparing evacuation plans for American citizens living in Taiwan, three sources told The Messenger.
The planning has been underway for at least six months and “it’s heated up over the past two months or so,” said a senior U.S. intelligence official who spoke on the condition of anonymity because he wasn’t authorized to discuss the planning.
h/t Mauser
China just substantially reduced a three-day no-fly zone it had declared northeast of Taiwan. The zone, originally scheduled to run from the 16th to the 18th of this month, was scaled back to just 27 minutes on the 16th.
China’s Maritime Safety Administration said the closure was due to “aerospace activities.” Apparently, the initial stage of a Chinese space launch vehicle will be falling back to earth at that time.
Taiwan said it had objected to the duration of the Chinese zone as initially announced. Others, including aviation authorities, complained to Beijing as well.
First, France’s Macron said Europe shouldn’t follow the US on Taiwan. Then, Germany’s top diplomat said France’s China policy reflected the policy of the EU as a whole. How are these comments seen in Taiwan?
France’s Emmanuel Macron has prompted backlash by saying that Europeans should not be “followers” of either US or China when it comes to Taiwan and urging for more EU autonomy in international policy.
His statements came as China was conducting a massive three-day military drill around the self-ruled island, which Beijing sees as a part of its own territory. On Wednesday, Macron said he was standing by his comments and that “being an ally does not mean being a vassal” of the US. At the same time, he emphasized that France supported “the status quo in Taiwan” and was in favor of solving the situation peacefully.
French President Emmanuel Macron said in an interview published Sunday that Europe must not be a “follower” of either the US or China on Taiwan, saying that the bloc risks entanglement in “crises that aren’t ours”.
His comments risk riling Washington and highlight divisions in the European Union over how to approach China, as the US steps up confrontation with its closest rival and Beijing draws closer to Russia in the wake of its invasion of Ukraine.
Weasels!
As China learns from Russia’s failed invasion of Ukraine, it’s just a question of when, not if, Beijing moves on Taipei
The ripples from the war in Ukraine have spread far and wide; they’ve even reached the South China Sea – so it’s time to talk about Taiwan.
According to diplomatic sources in the UK, Beijing believes there is a 48-hour window in which it can attack Taiwan before any international consensus forms.
In that time Chinese forces would need to get across the Taiwan Strait, onto the land and cut off the political and military leadership in Taiwan.
Beijing’s navy would be left in a ‘shambles’ with Washington losing over 3,000 troops, according to a think tank simulation
A hypothetical Chinese invasion of Taiwan in 2026 would fail but the United States would lose two aircraft carriers defending it, according to the latest simulation.
China’s navy would be left in a “shambles” while Taiwan and Japan would also suffer major losses, according to a war game played out by a leading think tank in Washington.
The Center for Strategic and International Studies [CSIS] conducted one of the most complex war games yet, called “The First Battle of the Next War”.
Without a realistic division of labor between the U.S. and its NATO allies, Taiwan will go undefended.
Elbridge Colby is one of the new generation of defense/national-security intellectuals in the mold of Andrew Marshall and Edward Luttwak, and, before them, Herman Kahn and Albert Wohlstetter. Colby served as deputy assistant secretary of defense for Strategy and Force Development in the Trump administration, where he led the way to shifting U.S. strategy to focus on renewed great-power rivalry after two decades of fighting “small” wars in Afghanistan and Iraq and the so-called Global War on Terror. His most recent book, The Strategy of Denial: American Defense in an Age of Great Power Conflict, is a must read for understanding today’s global security environment.
Military officials have indicated heightened alarm over Beijing’s intentions towards the island
America’s military must be ready to respond to a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan that could come before the end of this year, the head of the US Navy has said.
Admiral Michael Gilday, chief of US naval operations, was the latest senior US military official to indicate heightened alarm over Beijing’s intentions towards the island.
“So when we talk about the 2027 window in my mind, that has to be a 2022 window or potentially a 2023 window. I can’t rule that out. I don’t mean at all to be alarmist by saying that. It’s just that we can’t wish that away.”
Indeed:
The French foreign minister said Wednesday that the war in Ukraine will not overshadow France’s commitments to the Indo-Pacific region, where India and its allies view China’s rising influence with suspicion.
Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna and her Indian counterpart Subrahmanyam Jaishankar discussed the security situation in the region and the consequences of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, including concerns about food security and rising inflation, officials said.
Colonna said the two countries share the same concern about China’s role in the region.
“We spoke a lot about the general situation in the Indo-Pacific and the many challenges that have emerged because of China. We have basically the same analysis, we also share the same concerns, because we know the role the Chinese are playing and we want to make sure that there is no imbalance in the Indo-Pacific,” Colonna said at a news briefing.
Jaishankar said that it was important for like-minded countries to work together in the region to ensure peace, security and prosperity. “We consider France as an Indo-Pacific player that has a long-standing presence in the Indian Ocean,” he added.
Indian and Chinese soldiers last week began pulling back from a key friction point on their disputed border as part of efforts to lower tensions in a more than two-year standoff that has sometimes led to deadly clashes. The two countries have stationed tens of thousands of soldiers backed by artillery, tanks and fighter jets along the de facto border, called the Line of Actual Control.
In June 2020, India said it lost 20 troops and China said it lost four soldier when the two sides fought with clubs, stones and fists.
Jaishankar said Wednesday that the disengagement of troops was completed.
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The Chinese ambassador called on Japan for caution in dealings with Taiwan at a symposium in Tokyo on Sept. 12 to commemorate the 50th anniversary of normalization of ties between Japan and China.
“We hope (the Japanese government) is cautious in its words and actions with regard to the Taiwan issue, not sending a wrong signal to people supporting Taiwan’s independence, as well as not participating in any provocative moves that use Taiwan to keep China in check,” said Kong Xuanyou, the Chinese ambassador to Japan.
On Wednesday, the Chinese military continued a series of massive exercises in the vicinity of Taiwan. The Chinese state media called them “joint blockade training,” AND Magazine reports.
The suggestion from the naming is that they would cut Taiwan off from the rest of the world by air and sea. The state media, China Global Times, makes that point clear in an article. They mention that Nancy Pelosi allegedly “violated China’s sovereignty” with her visit.
They then say this:
The exercises are unprecedented as the PLA conventional missiles are expected to fly over the island of Taiwan for the first time, the PLA forces will enter the area within 12 nautical miles of the island, and the so-called median line will cease to exist, experts said, noting that by surrounding Taiwan entirely, the PLA is completely blockading the island demonstrating the Chinese mainland’s absolute control over the Taiwan question.
