I will have more detail later on this morning’s Supreme Court argument in Trump v. Anderson regarding whether the Colorado Supreme Court was right to throw Donald Trump off the ballot on the theory that Section 3 of the 14th Amendment disqualifies him from serving in federal office again after he “engaged in insurrection.” The short summary, for now: It seems very unlikely that the Court is inclined to let a state remove Trump from the ballot before Election Day, the Court is unlikely to reach the merits question of what it means to engage in insurrection, and the decision isn’t likely to be a close one — but it is very possible that we get a fractured decision, with different justices citing different reasons to throw out the Colorado ruling. That’s by no means a certain outcome; with a huge number of legal issues to address, the fact that different justices were thinking about different things doesn’t preclude them from coming together on at least one conclusion that commands a majority. The work of building that consensus may yet lie ahead in chambers and in the exchange of draft opinions.
