Marine Le Pen

National Rally’s supporters eschew extremism

Is this the week that Europe’s much-anticipated far-Right wave finally crashes down upon us? As the results of France’s first-round vote trickled through yesterday, almost every media outlet — from the BBC to The New York Times — carried stories of Marine Le Pen’s “far-Right” victory. Meanwhile, just over the border in Belgium, came warnings of Viktor Orbán’s plan to form a new “far-Right” pact in the European parliament. Throw in the AfD’s “far-Right” party congress on Saturday, and it’s been a busy few days for the movement.

A well-known French radio comedian recently suggested an armed revolution in the event Marine Le Pen is elected president in 2027. Mahaut Drama made her comments not in jest, but during a debate at a left-wing media festival in Paris entitled “How to fight the far right.” Envisaging a Le Pen victory, Drama said: “What do we do? Do we have armed factions too?… Should we start a revolution?” She continued: “If there are people who are prepared to be brave to that extent, I can only encourage them.”

The future of French conservatism has never looked less certain

Panic over. There’s no risk of a President Le Pen for another five years — and quite possibly forever. As in 2017, and also last year’s regional elections, Marine Le Pen underperformed polling expectations.

Le Pen taken to hospital for unknown reasons 🙏 pic.twitter.com/szIiFwkabm

— Janie Still (@carryoncovid) April 22, 2022

French voters are casting their ballots in the opening round of a presidential race that could become a cliffhanger.

Emmanuel Macron has a fight on his hands from far-right challenger Marine Le Pen, who has been galvanised by a slick election campaign.

Forty-nine million people are eligible to decide which two of 12 candidates should take part in the run-off vote.

But after four hours of voting, only a quarter of voters had turned out – the lowest for 20 years.

Jacky Ruiz was close to tears. For three hours he had waited to have his photograph taken with Marine Le Pen and now there it was. The former cabaret star stared at the picture on his outdated folding phone.

“Oh my goodness, this is so moving. I told her that I’d danced at a show attended by her father, Jean-Marie, back in the 1980s when she was a small girl and she said she was there and she remembered it,” the 70-year-old said. He pulled a battered black-and-white image of a long-legged dancer in a leotard from his pocket.

The country’s disenfranchised could swing the election in her favour

The final round of the French presidential election is now less than three weeks away. A re-match between Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen is the most likely run-off scenario — and Macron is the runaway favourite to win.

But have we been underestimating Le Pen’s chances? The political scientist, Yascha Mounk has been talking to the “smartest, best informed people” he knows in France — and according to him they’re “freaking out”. 

The Right-wing leader is on course to gain young voters to next year’s election

If it was left to youngish French people, Marine Le Pen would probably be elected President of the Republic next May. There has been a radical shift in her favour among French 25-34 year olds, according to a recent Elabe poll (figures confirmed in other surveys by Ipsos and Ifop).

🇫🇷#France, presidential election poll (1st round) :

Among 25-34 years old :#LePen (RN) : 37 %#Macron (LREM) : 18 %#Mélenchon (FI) : 14 %#Bertrand (LR) : 7 %#Jadot (EELV) : 7 %#Hidalgo (PS) : 6 %#DupontAignan (DLF) : 3 %
…

Elabe, 14/04/21 pic.twitter.com/jtYR217Ocf

— World Elects (@ElectsWorld) April 15, 2021

The figures are disturbing if you fear a French lurch to the far-Right next year. They need to be read with caution. Younger and older age groups are more favourable to President Emmanuel Macron.